Singula·Recovery Diagnostic
Crestline+  ·  Q3 2026 churn analysis  ·  487,200 active subscribers

Your churn isn't one number.
It's two problems wearing one disguise.

5.2%
Reported blended churn
The single number on the board pack. Treated as one problem with one set of interventions.
2.1%
Voluntary
Customers who chose to leave. Solved with value, content, retention offers.
3.1%
Involuntary
Customers whose payment failed. Solved with retry intelligence, channel timing, card recovery.

Beneath the two numbers, six sub‑categories. Two of them change everything.

01 / Anatomy
Reported view
How Crestline's billing system labels churn today. Two buckets. Cancel event present, or payment failure terminal.
Voluntary 40% of churn
Involuntary 60% of churn
Definitive voluntary 26% · explicit cancel, no payment friction
Voluntary‑with‑payment‑friction 10% · cancel triggered by recent failure
End‑of‑term opt‑out 4%
Definitive involuntary 38% · payment failure, customer engaged
Passive (masking voluntary) 15% · failure ignored, was leaving anyway
Ambiguous 7% · low model confidence
The killer band, 1
10% of churn is recoverable but you're chasing it as a cancel.

Customers who failed a payment then cancelled within 14 days. Coded "voluntary" by the billing system. Fixable with a 24‑hour retry & channel switch — saves before they ever touch the cancel button.

The killer band, 2
15% is unrecoverable but you're chasing it as a payment failure.

Engagement collapsed before the failure. They were leaving anyway. Aggressive dunning here irritates ex‑customers, costs SMS spend, and contaminates your retry data.

Reported  40 / 60 → True  45 / 55 After re‑classifying the two killer bands.

Translate the anatomy into pounds. The recoverable number is the wedge.

02 / Cost
Voluntary cost · annualised
£1.84M
Customers actively choosing to leave. Addressed with content, value, retention offers — not Recovery's lane.
Involuntary cost · annualised
£2.71M
Payment‑failure churn. Currently recovered at 12% by fixed‑schedule retries. The remaining 88% is the addressable market.
Recoverable involuntary · annualised
£2.34M
Definitive involuntary plus the 10% friction band, weighted by realistic recovery probability. The number Singula Recovery exists to capture.

Twelve months of trajectory. Which curve is moving?

03 / Trend
4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% Oct '25 Nov Dec Jan '26 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep '26 2.1% 3.1%
+0.1pts
Voluntary churn, 12‑month change. Essentially flat. Your content, value proposition, and retention machinery are holding.
+0.8pts
Involuntary churn, 12‑month change. Up 35% in relative terms. Card decay, issuer behaviour, and dunning miscalibration are the entire story of your worsening blended number.

You don't have a value problem. You have a payment infrastructure problem — and you've been spending the budget on the wrong one.